Insights

Macro

April 2, 2026

The market is pricing a pause

Macro

March 31, 2026

The market is pricing a pause

Macro

March 25, 2026

The market is pricing perfection. Oil is at $88.60, down from $99, and the collective sigh of relief is the loudest signal I've heard all year.

Macro

March 19, 2026

Oil is the story this week, and it's moving fast. The market is treating it as noise. I think it's the signal.

Macro

March 6, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz is shut. Oil is at $81. Michigan inflation expectations just printed 3.5% — past the Fed's comfort zone. The regime hasn't broken yet, but the fragile pillar I flagged two weeks ago is cracking.

Macro

February 25, 2026

The expansion is running hotter than anyone expected, and the two risks that could end it — inflation expectations and a BoJ-sourced bond selloff — aren't on the consensus radar.