Investment Reasoning Architecture
MARY
Multi-Agent Reasoning for You. MARY thinks the way a CIO thinks — across macro regimes, portfolio construction, fundamental analysis, and quantitative strategy. One integrated system. Real data. Grounded answers. Getting smarter every cycle.
What MARY Is
MARY is an investment reasoning architecture — a system built to analyze the questions that matter most to institutional investors: What is the macro regime? Which stocks are worth owning? How should a portfolio be constructed given current conditions? Which strategies work in this environment? When should you get out?
Every answer is grounded in real data. MARY pulls from 21 FRED macroeconomic indicators, SEC filings, and live market prices, and runs deterministic computations — regime scoring, portfolio optimization, valuation models, backtests — before any language model synthesizes the result. The reasoning is explainable. Every claim traces back to a source.
But the data does not just flow in. It flows back. Every output MARY produces — every regime call, every allocation, every signal — becomes training material for the next cycle. The system does not stay still. It learns from what the market confirms, adjusts from what it gets wrong, and arrives at each new day a little sharper than the last.
Built by a team of financial and AI experts, led by Parson Tang — an investment professional with 20+ years of experience across major financial institutions and global markets. The system reflects how practitioners actually think through investment problems — not how a chatbot summarizes financial news.
The Four Minds
Each agent is a specialized reasoning system. They operate independently and in combination, depending on the question. Beneath each agent are dozens of sub-systems, models, and decision frameworks — what you see here is the surface of a deeply engineered architecture.
Agent 01
Macro Intelligence
- Regime classification across multiple states — expansion, slowdown, contraction, recovery, crisis
- 21 FRED leading indicators, z-score normalized with hysteresis buffers
- Fed NLP: hawkish/dovish scoring of FOMC communications and speeches
- Scenario engine: base case, hawkish surprise, easing sprint
- Cross-asset velocity alerts with positioning implications
Under the hood: 3-layer ensemble classifier (rules-based + statistical + machine learning), auto-retraining pipeline, 7,400+ curated training examples, prediction tracking with monthly grading
Agent 02
Portfolio Construction
- Black-Litterman optimization with institutional capital market assumptions
- Bayesian blending: strategic asset allocation + regime tilts + signal overlays
- Tactical overlay: regime-weighted, valuation-aware, momentum-informed
- Stress testing across macro scenarios with position-level attribution
- Goal-based multi-bucket design for multi-generational wealth
Under the hood: MVO engine, threshold rebalancer, dynamic conviction weighting across 34 regime/strategy combinations, allocation grading with self-correction loop
Agent 03
Fundamental Analysis
- Multi-framework scoring: quality, value, growth, momentum — evaluated simultaneously
- Industry-specific frameworks: software, semiconductors, consumer, banks, industrials
- Thesis construction with bull/bear cases and explicit kill switches
- Peer comparison across 20+ financial metrics from SEC filings and live data
- Macro regime context applied to every company analysis
Under the hood: S&P 500 universe coverage (239 stocks), multi-source data pipeline (EODHD, FRED, SEC EDGAR), quality-weighted conviction scoring, regime-conditional sector filtering
Agent 04
Alpha Lab
- Validated strategies with walk-forward backtesting and real friction costs
- Regime-fitness scoring: which strategies work in which environments
- Technical signals: RSI, MACD, Bollinger, EMA crossovers, volume
- Cross-agent convergence: flags when macro, fundamental, and quant all agree
- Survivorship-bias-aware historical data for backtesting integrity
Under the hood: 24 scanners backtested across 114K+ signals, convergence scorer that improves 79% of scanners, dynamic exit evaluator with regime-modulated hold periods
How the Agents Work Together
Each agent operates independently on its domain. But the most important questions in investing cross domains — and that is where MARY's multi-agent architecture matters.
When a cross-domain question arrives, MARY dispatches to the relevant agents simultaneously. The Macro agent informs the Portfolio agent's position sizing. The Fundamental agent's quality scores inform stock selection within Portfolio. The Alpha Lab's regime-fitness scores gate which strategies to recommend. When all four agents converge on the same conclusion, MARY flags it explicitly.
The synthesis step identifies where agents agree, where they diverge, and which view carries more weight given the confidence levels. The result is not a summary — it is a reasoned, integrated position.
The Intelligence Flywheel
Most AI systems are static — they ship a model and it degrades over time. MARY is designed to compound intelligence. Every signal she generates, every regime she classifies, every trade she recommends feeds back into her learning pipeline.
Observe
MARY ingests macro indicators, market prices, fundamental data, and signal outcomes daily.
Decide
Regime classification, stock selection, portfolio allocation, and entry/exit signals are generated through deterministic computation.
Record
Every prediction is tracked in a signal ledger — entry, exit, regime at time of signal, hold duration, and outcome.
Grade
Monthly, MARY grades her own predictions against actual outcomes. Conviction adjusts on rolling 90-day windows.
Retrain
Continuously, the machine learning layer retrains on accumulated data. Strategies that degrade are demoted. Patterns that emerge are promoted.
The result: the longer MARY runs, the sharper she becomes. New data becomes training data. New strategies generate new insights that inform better strategies. This is compounding intelligence — the same principle that makes the best investors better over decades, encoded into a system.
Machine Learning That Earns Its Seat
There is a reason most investment AI disappoints: the machine learning is decorative. A model is trained once on historical data, shipped, and left to slowly drift as markets evolve. The world changes. The model does not. Eventually, the gap between what the model learned and what is actually happening becomes too wide to be useful.
MARY was built differently. Her machine learning layer does not merely consume data — it generates its own. When the macro engine reads 21 economic indicators and produces a regime classification, that classification becomes training data. When the portfolio engine makes an allocation decision and the market grades it over the following quarter, that outcome feeds back in. The system is continuously writing its own curriculum from the markets it is watching.
This creates a capability that static systems simply cannot replicate: the ability to form independent views. MARY does not just consume published macro data — she synthesizes her own macro assessments, independent of consensus. When her indicators pointed to stagflation — rising prices, slowing growth, deteriorating credit conditions — MARY classified the regime as stagflationary before that word had entered the mainstream conversation. Not because someone told her to. Because the pattern was there in the data, and she had learned to recognize it.
This is what self-improving intelligence means in practice. The model that runs today has seen every regime MARY has ever classified, graded against every outcome that followed. It has learned which indicators matter most in which environments, which signals are noise and which are signal, and how the relationships between variables shift as the cycle turns. And it will know more next quarter than it does today.
That is a different kind of edge — one that compounds quietly, every single day.
Built to Be Trusted
Intelligence without accountability is just noise. MARY is designed so that every answer can be interrogated — where the data came from, which model produced it, and under what conditions the view would change. That is not a disclaimer. It is the architecture.
Grounded, not generated
Regime scoring, portfolio optimization, and backtests run deterministically. The language model narrates results — it does not invent them. Every claim traces to a source.
Honest about uncertainty
MARY knows when she is uncertain. Low-confidence signals produce hedged language. High-confidence signals produce direct statements. The tone matches the evidence — always.
Analyst, not decision-maker
MARY produces analysis. The practitioner decides. Fiduciary accountability belongs with the person who holds it — that is the right design for institutional investment contexts.
Not a chatbot wrapper
The analysis is grounded in real financial data, deterministic models, and a self-improving learning pipeline. There is no black box. There is no language model imagining portfolio weights.
See MARY in Action
The research published on this site is MARY's actual output — regime assessments, company analyses, portfolio frameworks, backtested strategies. Read the work and judge the reasoning.
Weekly Macro Report
Regime classification, signal conditions, cross-asset positioning
CIO Weekly Intelligence Report
Full-spectrum synthesis — regime, portfolio, alpha, and risk in one briefing
Company Deep Dives
Fundamental analysis across sectors — thesis, valuation, kill switches
Portfolio Lab
Construction frameworks, stress tests, regime-aware allocation
Trading Ideas
Backtested strategies, regime-fitness scoring, quantitative signals