Insights

Company Deep Dive

March 20, 2026

Oil is up 46% in 20 days. Energy is the best-performing sector by a wide margin. The consensus says own XOM. But at 3.16% FCF yield, 58.8% reinvestment rate, and a stock near 52-week highs, the obvious trade is priced in. The question isn't whether oil is going up. It's whether XOM is the right way to own it.

Company Deep Dive

March 19, 2026

NVIDIA's fundamentals are exceptional. 73% revenue growth, 51% FCF margins, 88% ROIC. But at 2.4 beta and real yields at 2.30%, this is a stock that trades like a long-duration asset. The question isn't whether NVIDIA is a great company. It's whether this is the regime to own it.

Company Deep Dive

March 19, 2026

Both companies are spending aggressively on AI. Only one is converting that spend into cash. MSFT trades at 20.7x forward earnings with 17.6% FCF margins. GOOGL trades at 22.8x with 9.5% FCF margins. The market is paying more for the company that's monetizing less. That's the mispricing.

Company Deep Dive

March 19, 2026

JPM trades at 12.2x forward earnings and 2.26x book — a premium to peers but a discount to the market. The question isn't whether JPM is a good bank. It's whether the macro regime that made banks look cheap is the same one that makes their earnings fragile. We walk through the full banking framework: NIM, ROTCE, deposit beta, fee diversification, credit cycle, and regime sensitivity.